.png)
In a particularly unstable political context, Jean-Pierre Farandou, Minister of Labor and Solidarity, issued an urgent warning concerning Social Security finances. During his speech in the Senate on November 26, 2025, the minister outlined the dramatic consequences of the lack of adoption of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) for 2026.
According to his statements, maintaining the current trajectory without corrective measures would inexorably lead to a deficit of 29 billion euros, thus threatening the very sustainability of the French social protection system. This alarming projection comes at a time when the initial deficit forecast in the government version was 17.4 billion euros.
The examination of the draft budget by the National Assembly has considerably changed the financial balances originally planned. Jean-Pierre Farandou estimates that the deficit could reach almost 24 billion euros in 2026, reflecting the difficulties encountered in getting the necessary savings adopted.
The minister recognized the obstacles the government faces: we lack a lot of savings that are hard to get voted on. This situation is explained by the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, forcing the executive to seek difficult compromises between political forces with divergent positions.
The government's initial objective was ambitious: to reduce the deficit from 23 to 17 billion euros. However, the successive amendments adopted by parliamentarians have gradually moved this target away.
Faced with the parliamentary deadlock, some are talking about the use of a special law that would allow the 2025 budget to be extended pending the adoption of a new text. Jean-Pierre Farandou strongly warned against this option. The government is not very inclined to move towards a special law, he stressed, outlining the concrete consequences of such a scenario.
Without a budget adopted, the consequences would be multiple and serious. The additional 6.7 billion euros planned for the armies would not be available, the budgets needed to finance the organization of municipal elections would be sustainably sustainable, and the jobs planned to strengthen the internal security forces in the fight against drug trafficking could not be created.
For Social Security in particular, the absence of reform would be even more worrying. A special law would prevent all the savings and expenditure restraint measures included in the 2026 PLFSS. This situation would pose the terms of a major cash flow crisis for the future of the social system.
The Social Security Financing Bill for 2026 has had a particularly difficult legislative journey. Submitted on October 14, 2025, the text was examined at first reading by the National Assembly, where it was the subject of numerous amendments without a global vote having been able to take place within the constitutional period of 20 days.
The Senate then passed a deeply revised version on November 26, 2025, with 196 votes in favor and 119 against. In particular, the senators restored pension reform and the freezing of social benefits, two measures that the deputies had abolished.
The joint committee meeting on 26 November failed to reach an agreement between the seven deputies and the seven senators. This failure, largely foreseeable in view of the diametrically opposed positions of the two chambers, returns the text to the National Assembly for a new reading starting on 2 December.
The differences between the National Assembly and the Senate concern several structural measures of the Social Security budget.
Pension reform is the major sticking point. Deputies voted to suspend the ramp-up of the 2023 reform, which significantly pushes the legal retirement age to 64. The Senate removed this suspension, restoring the original schedule. Jean-Pierre Farandou had defended this suspension as a condition for giving political and economic stability to the country.
Another point of contention is the freeze on social benefits. The government initially planned a “blank year” in 2026, without an increase in social benefits and retirement pensions. The deputies abolished this measure, considering it unfair to the most precarious. The Senate reinstated it, while providing exceptions for the disabled adult allowance (AAH) and pensions under 1,400 euros.
The national health insurance expenditure target (ONDAM) has also been changed. Since then noted this objective, while senators sought to contain it further, in order to control health expenditure.
In addition to the broad guidelines, several specific measures have crystallized the opposition. The abolition of the exemption from employee contributions for apprentices, provided for contracts concluded as of 1 January 2026, has been strongly contested by many parliamentarians and professional organizations who see it as a threat to the attractiveness of apprenticeships.
The government also wishes to review the system of contractual terminations. Jean-Pierre Farandou recalled that unemployment benefits paid to employees coming out of contractual breaches represent a quarter of payments. The executive fears a drift and has proposed to the social partners to take up the subject by the end of the year, with the aim of finding a few hundred million euros in savings.
Beyond the immediate challenges of the 2026 budget, the question of the structural financing of Social Security is being raised with new acuity. The 2026 PLFSS forests a reduction of 3.44 billion euros in the VAT fraction allocated to Social Security compared to 2025. This decision is criticized by trade unions and social organizations who see it as a disengagement of the State.
The French social protection system faces major structural challenges: demographic aging, increase in chronic pathologies, evolution of health needs. These major trends require a global reflection on the sustainable resources of Social Security, beyond annual adjustments.
Faced with this critical situation, Jean-Pierre Farandou is multiplying calls for the responsibility of all political actors. He believes that when the final copy arrives at the Assembly in December, everyone should take a step towards the other, stressing the need to overcome partisan differences.
The minister expresses his conviction that a path is still possible through dialogue, consensus and small steps. According to him, an increasing number of parliamentarians are becoming aware of the importance of moving towards convergence. He calls for a “marriage of duty” rather than a “marriage of love,” where the general interest and the need to provide the country with a budget would take precedence over partisan interests.
Several outcomes are possible for this budget saga. The National Assembly could modify the Senate text during the new reading scheduled for early December, trying to find compromises acceptable to a majority of deputies. The government could also decide to engage its responsibility by using article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a text to be adopted without a vote, unless there is a motion of censure.
The latter option is particularly risky in the current political context, where several parliamentary groups have threatened to censor the government. However, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that he would not use it, preferring the path of compromise.
In the event of persistent failure, recourse to ordinances remains theoretically possible for the Social Security budget, in accordance with article 47-1 of the Constitution. However, this technical solution would not resolve the underlying political tensions and could further weaken the government.
The Social Security Budget is not only about abstract accounting balances. It directly determines the resources allocated to the health system, to medico-social institutions, to the financing of pensions and to the social benefits paid to millions of French people.
ONDAM, which regulates health insurance spending, conditions hospital investments, the remuneration of health professionals and access to care. The initial project foresaw an increase limited to 1.6% in 2026, a particularly strict level of constraint that raises concerns among health actors.
For retired, pension indexing decisions have a direct impact on their purchasing power. For people with disabilities, decisions on AAH and support services determine their daily living conditions.
The first week of December 2025 promises to be crucial for the future of the Social Security budget and, more generally, for the stability of the government. The consideration at a new reading in the National Assembly will be a major test of the ability of political forces to find compromises in a context of ongoing parliamentary fragmentation.
Jean-Pierre Farandou's warning about the risk of a deficit of 29 billion euros underlines the urgency of the situation. Beyond immediate considerations, it is the sustainability of the French social model that is at stake. The collective ability to overcome partisanship to adopt a responsible budget will be an important indicator of the country's political maturity in the face of the structural challenges it faces.
