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The artificial intelligence boom was one of the main drivers of financial markets in 2025, with record valuations for tech stocks and strong investor confidence. Analysts warn that this boom could fuel a resumption of global inflation in 2026, a phenomenon that markets seem to be underestimating. Increased spending on AI, including building and operating data centers, is helping to keep inflation in several major economies above central bank targets. If this pressure persists, monetary authorities could put the brakes on or reverse their accommodative policies.
The need for computing capacity and energy to support AI models has caused infrastructure costs to explode. An industry study estimates that more than $5 trillion will be needed worldwide by 2030 to develop data centers that can run AI workloads, a gigantic figure that reflects the scale of these investments. It is not only the total amount, but also the pace of cost growth that is creating pressure on the prices of critical components such as high-performance chips and specialized cooling systems and on energy, which is a costly strategic input for these installations.
Contrary to the hypothesis that technological productivity gains reduce inflation, financial experts anticipate that inflation will remain above official targets until the end of 2027, in part due to AI investment. This dynamic could push central banks like the American Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank to reconsider their interest rate cycles. Rising rates or ending the cuts would reduce the appetite for cheap financing that is currently fuelling the growth in technology spending.
The markets have already shown signs of nervousness. Some tech group stocks fell after reports of rising costs and margins under pressure, showing that investors are gradually integrating the inflationary risk of AI into their valuations. If financing costs rise, valuations of high-growth technology companies could contract, particularly affecting stocks that derive their value from distant growth projections rather than current earnings.
The fundamental question remains. Is massive investment in AI a sustainable opportunity or a risk of economic imbalance? Sustained investment growth stimulates innovation and can increase productivity over the long term. But if this spending becomes too concentrated on expensive infrastructure with no immediate economic return, it can create erroneous market price calibrations, persistent inflation, and increased vulnerability of economies to monetary policy shocks.
